PANDEMIC PANDEMONIUM

Swine flu huffs and puffs, and blows the health house down…

“Pandemic, deaths, lethal viruses, stay indoors, lock your windows and doors!” It seems like we are bombarded annually by the mass media with the threat of a super bug which is going to wipe out half of the world’s population.

Last year saw the predictions that the bird flu was going to cause widespread international illness – the facts? The supposedly highly pathogenic virus infected about 350 people and killed 212 along with millions of birds (most of which were euthanized).

To put this in context, about 60 people die from lightning strike in the USA each year, and it is estimated that ~2,000 people are struck by lightning worldwide with a 20% mortality rate – about 400 people by my maths. So where is the media hysteria to this health risk? Why was so much attention allocated to what really boiled down to another equally minor cause of death?

And why was the risk from this animal virus so grossly overstated: We know that the virus does not easily spread between people and most victims were infected through close contact with sick poultry. ( http://www.news-medical.net/news/2008/01/14/34274.aspx )

This year we see a repeat of this trend of media escalation with the emergence (or reappearance being a more accurate description) of what is being called swine flu: Yet another pandemic is on its way!

PANDEMIC?

One of the key points in this discussion is the misuse or misrepresentation of the term pandemic:

Let’s define some terms:

• An outbreak is a sudden increase in incidence.
• An epidemic is a sudden outbreak which affects more than the expected number of cases of disease occurring in a community or region during a given period of time.
• A pandemic is an epidemic that becomes very widespread and affects a whole region, a continent, or the world.

So what are the numbers on the swine flu so far? 13,398 cases in 48 countries with 95 deaths ( http://www.webmd.com/cold-and-flu/swine-flu/default.htm ). Based on our definitions above we can definitely say there has been an outbreak. But has there been more than expected number of cases? The numbers would suggest that there have been significantly less cases than predicted. In other words we don’t have an epidemic on our hands, and if we don’t have an epidemic then we can’t have a pandemic.\

Now hang on a minute I can hear you thinking: You aren’t minimising a potentially fatal disease are you? Let’s be frank, influenza does infect people and make them sick for a while, and some people die, but there is no miracle cure for any form of influenza.

And it is important to note that the definition of a pandemic includes no information about the risks to lives: Put another way; you could have a pandemic that didn’t kill anyone, and you could have an outbreak that killed a bunch of people. But the seemingly instant association in the media is that millions will die in spite of the reality…

So is the swine flu a mass killer? On the one hand, the H1N1 swine flu virus continues to spread. But on the other hand, most cases haven't been severe – nothing more than a fairly normal dose of the flu. ( http://www.webmd.com/cold-and-flu/news/20090522/who-rethinks-swine-flu-pandemic-criteria )

Meantime we are continuously reminded of the devastating “Spanish Flu” pandemic in 1918 – The pandemic lasted from March 1918 to June 1920, spreading even to the Arctic and remote Pacific islands. It is estimated that anywhere from 50 to 100 million people were killed worldwide, or the approximate equivalent of one third of the population of Europe. An estimated 500 million people, one third of the world's population (approximately 1.6 billion at the time), became infected. ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu )

So one might ask how has the bar been lowered so far since that time in terms of declaring widespread public risk (from 500 million to 15 thousand)? One reason is that there hasn’t been a repeat of such a massive infection which followed one of the great wars and so 15,000 nowadays seem like a lot. But the sceptic’s view could be that maybe there is some lobby group that could benefit from the enormous fear that results from the word “pandemic”. And there would appear to be only one industry that could profit from the knee jerk reactions that result from warnings of mass infection – the one that sells the drugs that become associated with the answer.

SWINE FLU

How is swine flu diagnosed anyway? Swine flu is presumptively diagnosed clinically by the patient's history of association with people known to have the disease and its symptoms (flu symptoms  that is). Then, a quick test (for example, nasopharyngeal swab sample) can be done to see if the patient is infected with influenza A or B virus. The tests can distinguish between A and B types. The test can be negative (no flu infection) or positive for type A and B. If the test is positive for type B, the flu is not likely to be swine flu (H1N1). If it is positive for type A, the person could have a conventional flu strain or swine flu (H1N1). Swine flu (H1N1) is definitively diagnosed by identifying the particular antigens associated with the virus type. In general, this test is done in a specialized laboratory and is not done by many doctors' offices or hospital laboratories. ( http://www.medicinenet.com/swine_flu/page6.htm )

In other words out of all the people that develop flu symptoms in the next few months, very few will receive the testing that could confirm that it was even virus type A let alone the H1N1 strain; so any estimates of the true numbers of infection will be at best guesstimates. Can you remember the last time your GP took a swab when you presented to him with signs of the flu?

WHERE IS IT COMING FROM?

There are several conspiracy theories circulating in regards to the source of this and other international bugs some of which seem more fictional than factual:

1. Leaked germ warfare agents: Are we the victims of some secret experiment as dark forces attempt to produce lethal weapons: This seems far fetched since releasing them now will only reduce their pathogenicity for some future attack, plus if this particular virus is the product of some evil scientist, then he can be judged a failure as it isn’t very lethal!
2. Vaccine contaminants: There is a history of viral contaminants in some batches of vaccines (http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssPharmaceuticals%20-%20Diversified/idUSLJ55693920090319 ) but to start to blame every new seasonal flu outbreak based on some theory of corporate wrongdoing is hopefully too huge a stretch of the imagination.
3. Viral evolution: the recurring warning we are threatened with is that one day, one of these viruses is going to mutate enormously, producing some potent and unstoppable tragedy. Natural history seems to refute this as most annual viral strains appear to have mutated and altered in small steps, and a healthy immune system should be able to keep up with these new versions. The swine flu seems to be following this latter pattern.
4. Globalization: It’s reassuring to see that we no longer name these viruses after countries – the 1918 flu was called the Spanish Flu, and yet no Spanish connection was ever made with start of the outbreak – hope someone said sorry for that cultural slight? Globalization has been suggested as a possible threat to being able to cut off the international spread of pandemics, but the main fear attached to this theory is that the infection will spread exponentially in numbers and severity. This may have been true in 1918 as people started to travel further from home, exposing the rest of the world to previously unseen microbes. However recent history seems to demonstrate that as a virus travel overseas it reduces in incidence and severity – perhaps one could more accurately argue that globalization is leading to an improved spread of natural immunity as individuals are exposed to a wider diversity of pathogen strains.
5. Intensive farming practices: Nowadays instead of insulting other cultures by naming illness after them, we name our pandemics after animals. The argument being that these new strains are animal viruses which mutate and crossover to humans – mad cow, bird flu and now swine flu to name a few. Here is an interesting question though. Hygiene and public health are the biggest factors in preventing the spread and severity of infectious disease. So does it come as any surprise that these new viral strains appear to originate from livestock which is being farmed in highly intensive and to some inhumane manners? Living in conditions that could be described as filthy and unhygienic - it doesn't take a huge stretch of the imagination to see that these environments could be the melting pots for the magnification of infectious agents.(http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/may/02/swine-flu-pandemic-mexico-pig-farming )

SWINE FLU TREATMENT

So what can be done to cut the virus off at the pass? In terms of prevention here are the ground breaking recommendations from the medical authorities: Frequent hand-washing, covering coughs, and having ill persons stay home, separation of the sick from others in single room if available until asymptomatic, cups and other utensils used by the ill person should be thoroughly washed with soap and water before use by other persons. ( http://www.medicinenet.com/swine_flu/page4.htm )

It needs to be noted that the biggest breakthroughs throughout history when it comes to reducing the devastation from infectious diseases have occurred in the area of public health and hygiene, and not in the development of medical interventions. So maybe I shouldn’t be so sceptical when the best advice we can get is to take some sick leave and cover our mouth when we cough.

Two antiviral agents have been reported to help prevent or reduce the effects of swine flu. They are zanamivir (Relenza) and oseltamivir (Tamiflu), both of which are also used to prevent or reduce influenza A and B symptoms. These drugs should not be used indiscriminately, because viral resistance to them can and has occurred. Also, they are not recommended if the flu symptoms already have been present for 48 hours or more. ( http://www.medicinenet.com/swine_flu/page6.htm )

Despite the warnings not to use these medications indiscriminately, the panic buying resulting from the mass hysteria is leading to international shortages – sounds like indiscriminate use has been approved? Maybe we won’t learn from our history with antibiotics abuse and the resultant super bugs – after all aren’t viruses so much more dangerous? Not…

And before you run off to the doctors demanding a dose if you have developed some flu-like symptoms, consider that after receiving reports of patients experiencing delirium, psychosis and hallucinations, US FDA staff recommended that Tamiflu and Relenza should carry warnings about possible side-effects.( http://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/89734.php ) Personally I’d rather have the flu.

What about a vaccine we all cry out? It has been suggested that a vaccine will be produced before the end of the year. But by then the strain will most likely have run its course, and even though numerous people will crowd doctors offices wanting the shot, if the virus has run its pandemic route, most people will have already been exposed and will have natural immunity already. But no doubt the vaccine will be declared a huge success since there will be so few cases reported once the vaccine is released that the shot will be ascribed to the decline (instead of natural history).

Also note that receiving the standard flu shot will not provide any protection against the swine flu no matter how much we would like to hope that it could.

LESSONS FROM THE PAST

But even if a vaccine is produced it will not be one that I’ll be lining up for based on past history:

Twenty-six years ago, the United States government got word that a deadly virus nobody had seen for years – and which experts thought was gone forever – was possibly circulating again. So, at great effort and expense, the government launched a plan to vaccinate the American population against the virus.

It seemed like a good idea at the time. But it turned into one of the biggest public health debacles in memory.

• The disease was swine flu, whose appearance in 1976 was believed to be a reincarnation of the infection that killed tens of millions of people in 1918 and 1919.
• Events began with the death, of an Army recruit during an outbreak of respiratory infections. Throat washings were taken from 19 ill soldiers, and a majority tested positive for that winter's dominant strain of the influenza virus, which was called A/Victoria. But 4 samples were different, and New Jersey public health officials sent them to the CDC to be identified.
• Within days of identifying the strain, federal health officials were meeting at the CDC to discuss what to do.
• The notion that an epidemic was likely enough to warrant population-wide vaccination grew from dominant opinion to unquestioned gospel.
• The rhetoric of risk suffered steady inflation as the topic moved from the mouths of scientists to the mouths of government officials.
• A few experts suggested the vaccine be made and stockpiled but used only if there was more evidence of an epidemic. This was considered but rejected early on. The argument was that the influenza vaccine had few, if any, serious side effects, and that it would be far easier (and more defensible) to get it into people's bodies before people started dying.
• President Gerald Ford announced on television that he was asking Congress for $135 million "to inoculate every man, woman and child in the United States" against swine flu.
• Pharmaceutical companies undertook crash programs to make enough of the vaccine by the start of flu season in October. But it turned out the Fort Dix bug grew poorly in chicken eggs, the growth medium for the influenza virus. This meant that yields were going to be about half of what was planned. In addition, one company used the wrong virus and had to start over.
• The insurance industry announced it wouldn't insure manufacturers against liability arising from the vaccine. An act of Congress shifted most of the liability to the government.
• Tests showed that single injections of some vaccine formulations didn't protect children. This required time-consuming studies of a two-shot regimen.
• Three elderly people in Pittsburgh died on the same day within hours of getting swine flu shots.
• In early December it was observed that people given the swine flu vaccine had an increased risk of developing Guillain-Barre syndrome, a rare, usually reversible but occasionally fatal form of paralysis.
• The swine flu vaccine campaign was halted. About 45 million people had been immunized. The federal government eventually paid out $90 million in damages to people who developed Guillain-Barre. The total bill for the program was more than $400 million.

( http://www.ph.ucla.edu/epi/Bioter/shotinthedark.html )

The other issue with vaccines for influenza is the efficacy: Usually overstated at vaccine release and subsequently found to be less effective than hoped once twenty-twenty hindsight comes into view:

Take the following three findings as examples:

1. Trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine may not elicit a clinically adequate antibody response in elderly adults, pilot data suggest. Based on blood assays taken before and 4 weeks after administration of the Fluarix 2007/2008 formula, 88% of 71 community-dwelling older adults, mean age 85 years, failed to mount a fourfold antibody response to any of the three virus strains present in the trivalent influenza vaccine (TIV). (http://m.acep.org/MobileArticle.aspx?parentfeedid=2&feed_id=imn051820091524052462&parentid=742 )
2. The inactivated flu vaccine does not appear to be effective in preventing influenza-related hospitalizations in children, especially the ones with asthma. In fact, children who get the flu vaccine are more at risk for hospitalization than their peers who do not get the vaccine. They found that children who had received the flu vaccine had three times the risk of hospitalization, as compared to children who had not received the vaccine. (http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2009-05/ats-fsn051209.php )
3. A Harris Poll confirmed the findings of a report by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) that the vaccine used to prevent the flu this last winter was less effective than the flu vaccines used in previous winters. In three previous winters people receiving flu vaccines were 33%, 43% and 24% less likely to get the flu than people who did not get flu shots. This year (2008), people who received flu shots were just as likely to get the flu as those who did not get flu shots. (http://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/106481.php )

FOLLOWING THE MONEY TRAIL

'So how does the pharmaceutical industry stand to profit from outbreaks being overstated as pandemics? There are three massive sales growth factors that result when public and bureaucratic hysteria sets in:

1. Consumer demand: The drug industry has discovered that bypassing the medical practitioner with its marketing is a very powerful tool to increases sales of drugs, any drug. If patients are lead to associate their symptoms with a medicine, then they tend to demand this from their MD. ( http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Direct-to-consumer_advertising ) And while the pharmaceutical industry may be limited from direct advertising in most countries, it would seem that with the right media release, with enough “sizzle”, the media machine quickly spreads the news without the need for a cent to be spent on advertising.
2. Government stockpiling: Governments across the world are stockpiling antiviral medications and vaccines. Imagine a business opportunity where you get to sell your wares by government tender, where the product is going to sit on a shelf somewhere, and is most likely never going to be used, AND, you have guaranteed orders before you have even developed some of the product? Why didn’t I think of this business model first? (http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/05/28/2583868.htm )
3. Shares: Nothing sells shares like the promise of big returns, and while millions of average people are shivering in their boots, covering their kids faces with ineffective masks, and rushing to the MD at the sound of any sneeze, and governments are quarantining dozens of people even remotely suspected of suffering with the flu while offering no effective treatment to the imprisoned; meanwhile investors are queuing up to take advantage of the resultant sales booms. (http://uk.reuters.com/article/governmentFilingsNews/idUKLR14464220090427 )

NATURAL SOLUTIONS

Now moving on from this seemingly sceptical view of an infectious agent that will pass after a few days of cold like symptoms in most cases, cause a degree of short term suffering in an unfortunate segment of the population if and when exposed, and may take a few isolated lives from the particularly immune-suppressed: Are there any natural steps that can be taken to?

1. Minimize your risks of this virus getting a hold if you are exposed.
2. Maximize the function of your immune system to increase your chances of overcoming an infection in the shortest possible time with the least possible symptoms.

I have covered this topic in more detail previously in my piece entitled: “IT’S A WAR IN THERE! DEFEATING BUGS AND VIRUSES BEFORE THEY BEAT YOU” ( http://www.superhealthy.com.au/its-war-there-defeating-bugs-and-viruses-they-beat-you )

Here’s an overview:

Are we defenceless against a stronger foe? Or, can we get back to the basics of germ warfare to win the battle? Here are some strategies for a successful immunity campaign:

1) Man the barricades

The first line of defence that we have against the invasion of micro-organisms is our mucous membranes: our skin, which includes the walls inside our airways and intestines. You may not realise, but we have millions of foot soldiers guarding the exterior of these walls. These are known as "normal flora": Millions of friendly bacteria that need to be pushed out of the way if any invaders are to get through. We can continuously replenish our troop numbers by taking a good brand of probiotic...

2) Strengthen the walls

If the invaders can get past your normal flora, they still have to break through the walls of your body – the mucous membranes that we mentioned before. So what is the main building block of these walls? Lipoproteins are made largely from essential fatty acids (EFAs). Cod liver oil is one of the best sources of omega-3 fatty acids. Even if you feel the need to have a low-fat diet, you need to make sure you are getting plenty of these fatty building blocks to have strong walls of defence against infection…

3) Increase your arsenal

If the attacker does get through into your blood stream and intercellular spaces, then let's hope your immune system has enough bullets to shoot down the enemy. So here's the question, what types of weaponry does our immune system use? The fastest response units are fairly non-specific in their action. That is, they don't care who the enemy is. Once he has been detected and located, they try to swallow and/or blow him up with the same types of weapon. This type of white blood cells use up lots and lots of antioxidants as "bullets". So make sure you buy and supply lots of bullets to increase the arsenal of your immune soldiers. Vitamins C, E and A, among other antioxidants are all needed in large quantities for a successful battle...

4) Take aim

To defeat an enemy you must first know he's there. Then you need to know exactly where he is hiding. Then you need to know enough information about his weaknesses and tactics to set winning battle plans. This process is dependent on a brilliant reconnaissance troupe. This is provided by a healthy and fully functional nervous system. The best way I know of to maximise the performance of your nervous system, is to get a regular chiropractic spinal adjustment...

(Also see the piece on the role of Chiropractic during the 1918 pandemic at http://www.superhealthy.com.au/chiropractic-and-infectious-disease-historical-perspective )

4) Fire!

I've got a few extra weapons that I keep in my arsenal (pantry actually), that I pull out of retirement in the event that the war is really hotting up:

• Colloidal Silver is one of the original substances used as an anti-microbial and is an excellent natural ally – you can gargle it for overrun throats, swallow it to arm the internal defences, bathe wounds to protect a breach in the fortress walls.
• Echinacea is always handy to have in the fridge (I keep it in a liquid form). This is good to be taken orally when the battle is being waged in the lungs.
• At the first sign of a skirmish put some liquid zinc on the tongue. If you can taste it then you can leave it in the fridge. If you can't taste it then start dosing up on it. This has been proven to be able to cut off a small-scale invasion in its tracks...

5) Battle harden the troops

We have managed to convert most childhood illnesses into threats to the mass population’s chances of survival. But ask any immunologist and you will find that the best immunity is natural immunity – do we really want our kids to go through life without a single runny and snotty nose, high fever, rash, or immune battle? There is evidence to suggest that this approach will lead to soft soldiers – weak immune systems and underdeveloped neurological resources. Should we instead be seeing the majority of childhood illnesses as an integral part of their growth and development? Why would we want our children’s immune system to be guarded from the very encounters that prepare them for future larger scale battles?

6) Take some R&R

We seem to be living in a highly stressful manner – emotionally, physically, spiritually, mentally and socially. And when the troops have been under a sustained siege, any good general knows that it is time for some “rec leave”. So, why do we insist on attempting to soldier on when all the indicators of our body suggest that we are approaching surrender? We immerse ourselves in any number of over the counter “crutches” that are just effective enough to allow us to be able to ignore all bodily symptoms. What is your body telling you right now? Many of us couldn’t answer because we don’t recognise our own body’s language. Is it time for you to be more proactive in participating in some recuperative behaviours...

May the best organism win!